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08-Feb-2009
The Question of Content
The current generation of Media Players are versatile and multi-format, designed to cope with the vast variety of file formats found out in the wild. These players have prospered precisely because virtually any film or TV show is available to download for free, albeit in many formats and requiring some technical knowledge to access.
If we presume that this situation will not continue forever and that a combination of government action, ISPs reducing strains on bandwidth, and a desire by the majority to legalise themselves will reduce illegal downloads, then what future for Media Players?
Certainly they will have to change.
Already we are seeing a rapid increase in popularity of TV on-demand services. In the UK every major TV channel has an online catchup service where you can watch (for instance) the previous weeks worth of TV whenever you like. The BBC service is available on the Wii, the Xbox 360, cable TV, and there is talk of it being built into Samsung TVs by year end. Other countries are similar and the United States leads in movies-on-demand and independent TV-on-demand service with Netflix, Hulu, TVersity, Boxee and others.
These new services are driven by content. It is the big broadcasters who produce the content the audience want to view, and it is the availability of this content that will drive sales of Media Players in the future.
It is therefore imperative that Media Players move quickly to add both free network TV services and paid on-demand to their capabilities. At this moment, there is no Media Player capable of using BBC iPlayer, and few capable of accessing Netflix. The versatility of Media Players is a fantastic thing, but it must be combined with the commercial reality of the content providers. Dubiously acquired content cannot be relied upon forever as a source of content.
This will mean both Media Player manufacturers paying whatever is necessary to get these services on their machines, and the content providers similarly compromising and accepting that allowing paid content on machines capable of playing illegally downloaded content makes commercial sense.
For content providers it makes sense that every step should be taken to put the ability to consume more product in front of the consumer. If this can be entirely paid for by third party Media Player manufacturers then all the better. The cost of the proliferation of boxes capable of playing illegal downloads is more than compensated for by the potential cash-cow of having all current and past content in front of those consumer's noses for instant impulse purchase. The cut previously taken by video rental firms, retailers, and broadcasters is all eliminated to be replaced by a direct income stream to the content provider.
Video is quite unlike audio. Whereas not many people can tell the difference between a 128kbps MP3 download and CD quality FLAC, the difference in quality between a DivX movie download and a 1080p HD stream is appreciable by all. If the facility to download or stream movies/TV in high quality with all the added extras is made straightforward and placed in front of people at a reasonable price, they will go for it. Netflix proves this point and should be the model. Increasing cinema attendances also prove that there is ample demand for high quality paid content.
The big TV companies and movie studios need to stop protecting prehistoric physical media formats and combine to provide a realistic paid option. Everything is now in place on the hardware side, the question is one of content.
And it is not like they have any choice. Whether a decent paid service is in place or not it is probable that illegal downloading will continue. Through Napster, eMule, Shareeza, Bittorrent, Piratebay, and Usenet, illegal downloading has shown an adaptability which has successfully delivered impunity.
The only option is to present consumers with an attractive paid alternative.
In 2010 we are looking at the imminent launch of two devices that promise to bridge this divide. The Boxee Box and the Popcorn Hour PopBox are the first two Media Players designed with on-demand content in mind. The PopBox is particularly interesting as it comes from the dark world of Media Players and promises to combine the ability to play dubiously acquired downloads with both advertising and paid content. Whether this represents the grand bargain described above or whether the big media companies just having twigged yet we cannot tell.
Whatever, things could be about to change in a very significant way..
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